Similar Search Results

Lang, Jan Hannes; Welz, Peter - 2018

This paper proposes a semi-structural approach to identifying excessive household credit developments. Using an overlapping generations model, a normative trend level for the real household credit stock is derived that depends on four fundamental economic factors: real potential GDP, the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011928898

Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian Model

Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa - 2010

This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008657123

Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending : evidence for the United States and the euro area

Dées, Stéphane; Soares Brinca, Pedro - 2011

For most academics and policy makers, the depth of the 2007-09 financial crisis, its longevity and its impacts on the real economy resulted from an erosion of confidence. This paper proposes to assess empirically the link between consumer sentiment and consumption expenditures for the United...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009160013

Bayesian forecasting of US growth using basic time varying parameter models and expectations data

Basturk, Nalan; Ceyhan, Pinar; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2014

forecasting performance of the various model specifications. The extension of a basic growth model with a constant mean to models … expectations is important for forecasting growth in specific periods, such as the the recession periods around 2000s and around …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399680

Spillover dynamics for systemic risk measurement using spatial financial time series models

Blasques, Francisco; Koopman, Siem Jan; Lucas, André; … - 2014

We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010391531

Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Manganelli, Simone - 2019

We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122051

Credit, financial conditions and the business cycle in China

Lodge, David; Soudan, Michel - 2019

This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011975616

Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic

Morley, James C.; Rodriguez Palenzuela, Diego; Sun, Yiqiao - 2022

We estimate the euro area output gap by applying the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition based on a large Bayesian vector autoregression. Our approach incorporates multivariate information through the inclusion of a wide range of variables in the analysis and addresses data issues associated with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013350551

The effect of new housing supply in structural models : a forecasting performance evaluation

Girstmair, Stefan - 2024

Equilibrium (DSGE) models in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), focusing on the U.S. While existing models have added a … includes both the financial sector and endogenous housing supply and show that forecasting accuracy significantly improves when … highlight the necessity of combining model extension and housing supply data for accurate forecasting during economic crises. I …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484423

Underlying inflation and asymmetric risks

Le Bihan, Hervé; Leiva-Leon, Danilo; Pacce, Matías - 2023

We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380740