This article introduces the metaphor of the iceberg in the labour market. While policy in most OECD countries has historically focussed on reducing unemployment (the tip of the iceberg), the group of inactive people (below the waterline) is much larger. Therefore, we point to the clear...

We estimate the effect of nonemployment experienced by Italian youth after leaving secondary school on subsequent labor market outcomes. We focus on the impact on earnings and labor market participation both in the short- and in the long-term, up to 25 years since school completion. By...

Our paper documents the importance of workers' ex-ante heterogeneity for labor market dynamics and for the composition of the unemployment pool. We show that workers with high wages have both lower separation rates and larger log-deviations of these separations over the business cycle than those...

This paper analyzes the determinants of lay-offs, job-to-job movements and totalseparations with a unique data set that combines information on individual firmsand their workers. We are in particular interested in whether the lay-offpolicy of firms can explain the relatively high level of...

This paper describes a search model with a continuum of worker and job types, free entry and transferable utility. We apply a second-order Taylor expansion to characterize the equilibrium, derive the "cost of search" and show that it is decreasing in the substitutability of worker types. This...

Recent evidence suggests that automation technologies entail a trade-off between productivity gains and employment losses for the economies that adopt them. This paper casts doubts on this trade-off in the context of a developing country. It shows significant productivity and employment gains...

This work investigates the impact that the change in the exposure to robots had on the Italian local employment dynamics over the period 2011-2018. A novel empirical strategy focusing on a match between occupations' activities and robots' applications at a high level of disaggregation makes it...

Politicians can use the public sector to give jobs to cronies, at the expense of the efficiency of those organisations and general welfare. In this paper, we regress monthly hires across all firms in Portugal with some degree of public ownership on the country's 1980-2018 political cycle. We...

We study the relationship between cyclical job and worker flows at the establishment level using the new German AWFP dataset spanning from 1975–2014. We find that worker turnover moves more procyclical than job turnover. This procyclical worker churn takes place along the entire employment...

Fixed-term contracts (FTCs) may be an important tool to promote employment, particularly in recessions or when permanent contracts are costly. Therefore, it may be useful to vary some of the legal parameters of FTCs over the business cycle, namely increasing their flexibility during downturns....