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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545165
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Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795319
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The time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to-market
Lewellen, Jonathan - In: Journal of financial economics 54 (1999) 1, pp. 5-43
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001407051
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Reading the tea leaves : model uncertainty, robust forecasts, and the autocorrelation of analysts' forecast errors
Linnainmaa, Juhani; Torous, Walter N.; Yae, James - In: Journal of financial economics 122 (2016) 1, pp. 42-64
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590878
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Unit root tests in the presence of uncertainty about the non-stochastic trend
Ayat, K. Leila; Burridge, Peter - In: Journal of econometrics 95 (2000) 1, pp. 71-96
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001432518
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Constructive identification of the mixed proportional hazards model
Kortram, Ronald A. (contributor) - 1995
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000912257
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Cyclical consumption
Berger, Tino; Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2023
Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380708
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Payout yield, risk, and mispricing : a Bayesian analysis
Shanken, Jay; Tamayo, Ane - In: Journal of financial economics 105 (2012) 1, pp. 131-152
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009622431
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Common risk factors in equity markets
Atanasov, Victoria - 2014 - This version: May 26, 2014
Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity returns. We propose a new factor, termed "the global consumption factor", to explain the patterns in risk premiums on international equity markets. We identify this factor as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010362976
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Corporate production and shareholder cooperation under uncertainty
Haller, Hans - In: International economic review 32 (1991) 4, pp. 823-842
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001114747