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This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379469
) model with those for ARIMA(1,d,1) models withfixed order of d=0 and d=1 for inflation. Comparing meansquared forecast errors …,1,1) model provides the best forecasts, but itsmulti-step forecast intervals are too large. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011316885
Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility models. While variants of the GARCH model are applied in scores of articles, use of the stochastic volatility model is less widespread. In this article it is argued that one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386124
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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003913191
Many seasonal macroeconomic time series are subject to changes in their means and variances over a long time horizon. In this paper we propose a general treatment for the modelling of time-varying features in economic time series. We show that time series models with mean and variance functions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379641
Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility models. While variants of the GARCH model are applied in scores of articles, use of the stochastic volatility model is less widespread. In this articleit is argued that one...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386121
A key application of long memory time series models concerns inflation. Long memory implies that shocks have a long-lasting effect. It may however be that empirical evidence for long memory is caused by neglecting one or more level shifts. Since such level shifts are not unlikely for inflation,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011283465
The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance istreated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on thesimultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochasticprocesses of the mean part...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327834
TSMod is an interactive program which allows the user to estimate a broad range of univariate models. This review describes the possibilities of the package, from a user's perspective and with a secondary focus on the numerical accuracy of the program.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334344