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What do professional forecasters actually predict?
Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2015
In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773
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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545165
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Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795319
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Cumulated prediction errors of multivariate time series models
Klein, André; Gooijer, Jan G. de - 1996
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000929738
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Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models
Sims, Christopher A. - In: International economic review 39 (1998) 4, pp. 949-968
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001338805
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Projecting Potential Output : Methods and Problems
Wang, Qingwei - 2009
In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013522987
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Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints
Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan; Valkanov, Rossen I. - In: Journal of financial economics 114 (2014) 3, pp. 517-553
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532691
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"Déjà vol" : predictive regressions for aggregate stock market volatility using macroeconomic variables
Paye, Bradley S. - In: Journal of financial economics 106 (2012) 3, pp. 527-546
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009710165
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Cross-asset signals and time series momentum
Pitkäjärvi, Aleksi; Suominen, Matti; Vaittinen, Lauri - In: Journal of financial economics 136 (2020) 1, pp. 63-85
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545360
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Forecasting High-Frequency Volatility Shocks : An Analytical Real-Time Monitoring System
Kömm, Holger - 2016 - 1st ed. 2016
-by-tick asset prices to forecast the risk of upcoming volatility shocks. Holger Kömm embeds the proposed strategy in a monitoring …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014018810