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theoretical performance guarantees on the forecast capability of our procedure. To be precise, we show that we can forecast future … margin at the longer forecast horizons. Finally, we investigate the economic value of our forecasts in a portfolio selection …
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Traditional finance is built on the rationality paradigm. This chapter discusses simple models from an alternative approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex evolutionary systems. Agents are boundedly rational and base their investment decisions upon market forecasting heuristics....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376458
Recent empirical evidence suggests that value and momentum strategies generate significantexcess returns in emerging markets. We confirm these results and extend them in severaldirections. First, we examine a broader range of stock selection strategies, including strategiesbased on analysts'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011313928
We investigate whether risk seeking or non-concave utility functions can help to explain the cross-sectional pattern0 of stock returns. For this purpose, we analyze the stochastic dominance efficiency classification of the value-weighted market portfolio relative to benchmark portfolios based on...
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We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343265
. One is a call market experiment in which participants trade assets with each other. The other is a learning-to-forecast … experiment in which participants only forecast future prices, while the trade, which is based on these forecasts, is computerized … literature. Our findings in the learning-to-forecast experiment are novel. Interestingly, the shape of the bubbles is different …
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