Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 241
Cover Image
What do professional forecasters actually predict?
Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2015
In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773
Cover Image
Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545165
Cover Image
Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795319
Cover Image
Cumulated prediction errors of multivariate time series models
Klein, André; Gooijer, Jan G. de - 1996
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000929738
Cover Image
Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models
Sims, Christopher A. - In: International economic review 39 (1998) 4, pp. 949-968
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001338805
Cover Image
Forecasting stock returns under economic constraints
Pettenuzzo, Davide; Timmermann, Allan; Valkanov, Rossen I. - In: Journal of financial economics 114 (2014) 3, pp. 517-553
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532691
Cover Image
"Déjà vol" : predictive regressions for aggregate stock market volatility using macroeconomic variables
Paye, Bradley S. - In: Journal of financial economics 106 (2012) 3, pp. 527-546
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009710165
Cover Image
Cross-asset signals and time series momentum
Pitkäjärvi, Aleksi; Suominen, Matti; Vaittinen, Lauri - In: Journal of financial economics 136 (2020) 1, pp. 63-85
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545360
Cover Image
Time-varying short-horizon predictability
Henkel, Sam James; Martin, J. Spencer; Nardari, Federico - In: Journal of financial economics 99 (2011) 3, pp. 560-580
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009242307
Cover Image
How informative are the unpredictable components of earnings forecasts?
Bruijn, Bert de; Franses, Philip Hans - 2015
earnings forecasters, we see that small adjustments to the model forecasts lead to more forecast accuracy. Based on past track …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010490078