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We present a simple new methodology to allow for time-variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. It exploits the link between exponentially weighted moving average and integrated dynamics of score driven time varying parameter...
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theoretical performance guarantees on the forecast capability of our procedure. To be precise, we show that we can forecast future … margin at the longer forecast horizons. Finally, we investigate the economic value of our forecasts in a portfolio selection …
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the forecast combination methodology of Casarin, Grassi, Ravazzolo and Van Dijk(2016). Given the complexity of the non …
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the inclusion of realized variances largely accounts for the improvement in statistical forecast performance (between 65 …
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