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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil

Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021

We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545165

Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil

Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795319

Constructive identification of the mixed proportional hazards model

Kortram, Ronald A. (contributor) - 1995

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000912257

Cyclical consumption

Berger, Tino; Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2023

Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380708

Common risk factors in equity markets

Atanasov, Victoria - 2014 - This version: May 26, 2014

Empirical measures of world consumption growth risk have failed to rationalize the cross-section of country equity returns. We propose a new factor, termed "the global consumption factor", to explain the patterns in risk premiums on international equity markets. We identify this factor as the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010362976