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What do professional forecasters actually predict?
Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2015
In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011305773
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Quantifying time-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012545165
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Quantifying Time-Varying Forecast Uncertainty and Risk for the Real Price of Oil
Aastveit, Knut Are; Cross, Jamie; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2021
We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795319
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A simple estimator for simultaneous models with censored endogenous regressors
Vella, Francis - In: International economic review 34 (1993) 2, pp. 441-457
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001144172
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Bayesian analysis of ARMA models using noninformative priors
Kleibergen, Frank; Hoek, Henk - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000952481
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Common persistence in nonlinear autoregressive models
Boswijk, Herman Peter; Franses, Philip Hans - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000952484
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The statistical properties of dimension calculations using small data sets : some economic applications
Ramsey, James B. - In: International economic review 31 (1990) 4, pp. 991-1020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001097428
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Cross- and auto-correlation effects arising from averaging : the case of US interest rates and equity duration
Hallerbach, Winfried G. - 2000
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001503370
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Time series modelling of daily tax revenues
Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius - 2001
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001569678
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Efficient estimation of additive partially linear models
Li, Qi - In: International economic review 41 (2000) 4, pp. 1073-1092
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001525651