. Real option theory argues that research projects with conditional phases have option-like risk and return properties, and … portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option … are different from unconditional projects. We show that although the risk of a portfolio always depends on the correlation …

We present an accurate and efficient method for Bayesian forecasting of two financial risk measures, Value-at-Risk and …-year-ahead. The latter has recently attracted considerable attention due to the different properties of short term risk and long run … risk. The key insight behind our importance sampling based approach is the sequential construction of marginal and …

technologies under uncertainty. Specifically, given two technologies, one with lower costs at present, but the other with greater … uncertainty in the returns to R&D, how should one allocate the R&D budget? We develop a multi-stage stochastic dynamic programming … variance in the uncertainty in returns to R&D and with the skewness of the uncertainty. We also present an illustrative case …

This paper studies the pricing of volatility risk using the first-order conditions of a long-term equity investor who …

manage systematic mortality risks, namely self-insurance and risk transfer to purchasers of the annuity products. We … demonstrate that self-insurance leads to high loadings, so that households offered a choice would favor the risk transfer scheme …

. Our results apply to stationary and ergodic time series. In a simulation study we show that our asymptotic theory provides …

and risk features than very simple and very complex models. Combinations of two strategies help, in particular, to reduce … risk features like volatility and largest loss, which indicates that complete densities provide useful information for risk. …

Value at Risk has become the standard measure of market risk employed by financial institutions for both internal and … methodologies developed so far give satisfactory solutions. Interpreting Value at Risk as a quantile of future portfolio values … assumptions invoked by existing methodologies (such as normality or i.i.d. returns). The Conditional Value at Risk or CAViaR model …

While the traditional view of financial innovation emphasizes the risk sharing role of new financial assets, belief …. This paper investigates the effect of financial innovation on portfolio risks in an economy when both the risk sharing and … the possibilities for risk sharing. My main result shows that financial innovation also always increases the speculative …