from that seen during and after prior deep recessions. Recent data point to two warning signs going forward. First, the … record rise in long-term unemployment may yield a persistent residue of long-term unemployed workers with weak search … effectiveness. Second, conventional estimates suggest that the extension of Emergency Unemployment Compensation may have led to a …

We provide a set of comparable estimates for the rates of inflow to and outflow from unemployment for fourteen OECD … economies using publicly available data. We then devise a method to decompose changes in unemployment into contributions … accounted for by changes in inflow and outflow rates for cases where unemployment deviates from its flow steady state, as it …