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The U.S. Energy Information Administration regularly publishes short-term forecasts of the price of crude oil. Traditionally, such out-of-sample forecasts have been largely judgmental, making them difficult to replicate and justify, and not particularly successful when compared with naive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009783104
This paper examines the impact of product market competition and corporate governance on the cost of debt financing and the use of bond covenants. We find that more antitakeover provisions are associated with a lower cost of debt only in competitive industries. Because they are exposed to higher...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010238953
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Guided by a macroeconomic model in which non-energy commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010385286
We present a multi-country theory of economic growth in which countries are connected by a network of mutual knowledge … country depends on its connections to the rest of the world and on the human capital of the countries it is exchanging … knowledge with. We show how the diffusion of knowledge through the world explains the evolution of global income inequality. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010253459
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-state share of long-term U.S. bond holdings increases in the rest-of-the-world portfolio, as the elasticity of substitution …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010468314
Given the increasing interdependence of both financial systems and attendant payment and settlement systems a vital question is what form should optimal policy take when there are two connected payment systems with separate regulators. In this paper I show that two central banks operating in a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711702
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