How much does a nation spend on resources to 'grease the wheels of trade'? To examine this question the Dutch economy is used as an exemplary case as the Netherlands are known as a nation of traders. This image was derived in the seventeenth century from successes in long distance trade,...

Nobel laureates in economics make their most important and creative contributionsbetween the ages of 29 and 38. The average creative age of Nobel economists is slightly belowthat of laureates in physics, and considerably younger than that of laureates in chemistry andmedicine/physiology. The...

We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

We study the performance of alternative methods for calculating in-sample confidence and out of-sample forecast bands for time-varying parameters. The in-sample bands reflect parameter uncertainty only. The out-of-sample bands reflect both parameter uncertainty and innovation uncertainty. The...

We introduce a new model for time-varying spatial dependence. The model extends the well-known static spatial lag model. All parameters can be estimated conveniently by maximum likelihood. We establish the theoretical properties of the model and show that the maximum likelihood estimator for the...