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Spillovers and directional predictability between international energy commodities and their implications for optimal portfolio and hedging
Trabelsi, Nader; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Hammoudeh, Shawkat - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 62 (2022), pp. 1-35
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013534076
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Individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior
Assenza, Tiziana; Heemeijer, Peter; Hommes, Cars H.; … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
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A quantile-boosting approach to forecasting gold returns
Pierdzioch, Christian; Risse, Marian - In: The North American journal of economics and finance : a … 35 (2016), pp. 38-55
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011672283
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Dynamic factor models with clustered loadings : forecasting education flows using unemployment data
Blasques, Francisco; Hoogerkamp, Meindert Heres; … - 2020
We propose a dynamic factor model which we use to analyze the relationship between education participation and national … unemployment, as well as to forecast the number of students across the many different types of education. By clustering the factor … loadings associated with the dynamic macroeconomic factor, we can measure to what extent the different types of education …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012315409
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Value-at-risk and extreme returns
Daníelsson, Jón; Vries, Casper G. de - 1997
Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010533206
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Information flows around the globe : predicting opening gaps from overnight foreign stock price patterns
Gooijer, Jan G. de; Diks, Cees G. H.; Gatarek, Lukasz T. - 2009
This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379456
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Abnormal returns, risk, and options in large data sets
Caserta, Silvia; Daníelsson, Jón; Vries, Casper G. de - 1998
Large data sets in finance with millions of observations have becomewidely available. Such data sets enable the construction of reliablesemi-parametric estimates of the risk associated with extreme pricemovements. Our approach is based on semi-parametric statisticalextreme value analysis, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011299966
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Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance : modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH
Brännäs, Kurt; Gooijer, Jan G. de - 2000
The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
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The stochastic volatility in mean model
Koopman, Siem Jan; Hol Uspensky, Eugenie - 2000
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable in the mean equation. The same extension...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303314
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Forecasting the variability of stock index returns with stochastic volatility models and implied volatility
Hol Uspensky, Eugenie; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2000
In this paper we compare the predictive abilility of Stochastic Volatility (SV)models to that of volatility forecasts implied by option prices. We develop anSV model with implied volatility as an exogeneous var able in the varianceequation which facilitates the use of statistical tests for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011304384