We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

Total public debt in most emerging markets grew before and after the pandemic with a sizable share in foreign currency. Along this trend, interest payments increased even in the presence of active fiscal rules in some countries. How should debt management of public debt be set under a fiscal...

We study alternative approaches to the withdrawal of prolonged unconventional monetary stimulus ("exit strategies") by central banks in large, advanced economies. We first show empirically that large-scale asset purchases affect the exchange rate and domestic and foreign term premiums more...

Proponents of the so-called New Economy claim that it entails a structural change of the economy. Such a change, in turn, would require the central bank to rethink its monetary policy to the extent that traditional relationships between inf1ation and economic growth are no longer valid. But such...

We analyse the impact of interactions between monetary and fiscal policy on macroeconomic stability. We find that in the presence of sovereign default beliefs a monetary policy, which aims to stabilize inflation through an active interest rate policy, will destabilize the economy if the feedback...

How does monetary policy impact upon macroprudential regulation? This paper models monetary policy's transmission to bank risk taking, and its interaction with a regulator's optimization problem. The regulator uses its macroprudential tool, a leverage ratio, to maintain financial stability,...

We study the impact of human capital and the level of education on the pollution-income relationship controlling for income inequality in 17 OECD countries. By applying an innovative approach to country grouping, based on the temporal evolution of income inequality and clustering techniques to...