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Bayesian forecasting of US growth using basic time varying parameter models and expectations data

Basturk, Nalan; Ceyhan, Pinar; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2014

Time varying patterns in US growth are analyzed using various univariate model structures, starting from a naive model structure where all features change every period to a model where the slow variation in the conditional mean and changes in the conditional variance are specified together with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399680

Convergence in European GDP series

Luginbuhl, Rob; Koopman, Siem Jan - 2003

Convergence in gross domestic product series of five European countriesis empirically identified using multivariate time series models that arebased on unobserved components with dynamic converging properties.We define convergence in terms of a decrease in dispersion over timeand model this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333256

Cross-temporal probabilistic forecast reconciliation

Girolimetto, Daniele; Athanasopoulos, George; Di Fonzo, … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014316407

Tracking growth and the business cycle : a stochastic common cycle model for the Euro area

Azevedo, João Valle e; Koopman, Siem Jan; Rua, António - 2003

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364

A Bayesian analysis of unobserved component models using Ox

Bos, Charles S. - 2011

Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility … unobserved stochastic volatility, and the varying approaches that have been taken for such estimation.In order to simplify the … comprehension of these estimation methods, the main methods for estimating stochastic volatility are discussed, with focus on their …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386121

Variable selection and functional form uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions

Salimans, Tim - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008824707

Structural differences in economic growth

Basturk, Nalan; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2008

This paper addresses heterogeneity in determinants of economic growth in a data-driven way. Instead of defining groups of countries with different growth characteristics a priori, based on, for example, geographical location, we use a finite mixture panel model and endogenous clustering to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377062

Outlier robust GMM estimation of leverage determinants

Lucas, André; Dijk, Ronald van; Kloek, Teun - 1994

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000151692

Nonstationarity in GARCH models : a Bayesian analysis

Kleibergen, Frank; Dijk, Herman K. van - 1993

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000122477

Extracting business cycles using semi-parametric time-varying spectra with applications to US macroeconomic time series

Koopman, Siem Jan; Wong, Soon Yip - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003408454

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