This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

This paper introduces a novel score-driven dynamic factor model designed for filtering cross-sectional co-movements in panels of time series. The model is formulated using elliptical distribution for the noise terms, thus allowing the update of the time-varying parameter to be potentially...

Developing EAP grew slightly faster than anticipated in 2017. The growth of regional GDP excluding China is forecast to accelerate in 2018, while China's GDP growth is expected to moderate as the economy keeps rebalancing. Major downside risks include volatility associated with faster than...

Despite some financial turbulence, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilientduring the first half of 2018. The growth outlook for the region remains positive. After peaking in2017, growth in developing EAP is expected to slow modestly in 2018, as China's economicexpansion...

Despite global economic volatility, growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) was resilientduring 2018, and in the first quarter of 2019. The growth outlook for developing EAP is expected tosoften in 2019, as China's economic expansion continues to moderate. Downside risks...

Growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific region slowed in the first half of 2019 given weakening global demand and heightened policy uncertainty amid ongoing trade tensions. Steady consumption growth helped to partly offset the effects of weakening exports and investment on growth. The...

Growth in the developing East Asia and Pacific region slowed sharply in 2020Q1 because of the negative impact of the Covid-19 on economic activity. The decline has been broad-based reflecting the interconnectedness of the EAP economies and reverberations from the global economy as the virus...

Conditions in the region and the rest of the world have changed dramatically since the April 2020 Regional Economic Update (World Bank 2020a). In addition to still unfolding unprecedented health crisis, the world is now experiencing the deepest global recession since the Second World War (World...

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly...

Real GDP growth picked up to 5.2 percent yoy in Q4 from 5.1 percent in Q3, driven by higher domestic demand, in particular stronger investment. Private consumption growth also strengthened marginally, partly due to consumer price inflation easing in Q4. Export and import growth moderated from a...