Many empirical studies have shown that factor models produce relatively accurate forecasts compared to alternative short-term forecasting models. These empirical findings have been established for different macroeconomic data sets and different forecast horizons. However, various specifications...

The COVID-19 pandemic has, with alarming speed, dealt a heavy blow to an already-weak global economy, which is expected to slide into its deepest recession since the second world war, despite unprecedented policy support. The global recession would be deeper if countries take longer to bring the...

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly...

The country benefited from the improved external demand in 2017. Global growth is estimated to have picked up in 2017 to 3.0 percent from 2.4 percent in 2016, reflecting gradual recovery in the euro area, China, emerging Europe, and Russia as commodity prices and financial markets continued to...

Real GDP growth picked up to 5.2 percent yoy in Q4 from 5.1 percent in Q3, driven by higher domestic demand, in particular stronger investment. Private consumption growth also strengthened marginally, partly due to consumer price inflation easing in Q4. Export and import growth moderated from a...

Indonesia's real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 5.0 percent yoy in Q2 2017, unchanged from Q1. Growth rates have been steady at around 5 percent since Q1 2014, lower than those recorded at the beginning of the decade. While this growth rate places Indonesia among the fastest-growing...

The Indonesian economy strengthened modestly in third quarter(Q3). Economic growth was supported by higher commodity prices, stronger global growth, rebounding international trade, and relatively accommodative monetary and financial conditions. At the same time, domestic conditions improved,...

Since its independence in 1991 and until prior to the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008-09, Armenia was considered an important success story among the transition economies. Indeed, over several years, the country displayed a record of sustained macroeconomic achievements, reflected in high...

This edition includes a focus topic that discusses how 15 years of education reforms have helped to improve education outcomes and human capital in Indonesia, and what challenges remain. The outcomes from 15 years of educational reform have been mixed, with a significant expansion inaccess, but...

Real GDP grew 5.3 percent in the second quarter of 2018 from the previous year, as domestic demand strengthened. Private and government consumption accelerated thanks to higher subsidy and personnelspending, a pick-up in credit growth, higher agricultural incomes, and stable inflation. Strong...