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all variables proposed by theory, despite a broad set of fixed effects (FE). We find that both REERs are important and … multilateral resistances. Untangling normalization helps to get a better view of what is still unexplained by theory. …
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We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...
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