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Learning, forecasting and optimizing : an experimental study

Te, Bao; Duffy, John; Hommes, Cars H. - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191021

From self-fulfilling mistakes to behavioral learning equilibria

Hommes, Cars H. - 2017

This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425

Bubble formation and (in)efficient markets in learning-to-forecast and -optimise experiments

Te, Bao; Hommes, Cars H.; Makarewicz, Tomasz - 2015

This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057

Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments

Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625

Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations

Anufriev, Mikhail; Assenza, Tiziana; Hommes, Cars H.; … - 2009

The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378358

Individual expectations, limited rationality and aggregate outcomes

Te, Bao; Hommes, Cars H.; Sonnemans, Joep; Tuinstra, Jan - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191020

Behavioral learning equilibria

Hommes, Cars H.; Zhu, Mei - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191433

Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices

Hommes, Cars H.; Veld, Daan in't - 2015 - This draft: July 2015

We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301214

Heterogeneous agent models : two simple case studies

Hommes, Cars H. - 2005

These notes review two simple heterogeneous agent models in economics and finance. The first is a cobweb model with rational versus naive agents introduced in Brock and Hommes (1997). The second is an asset pricing model with fundamentalists versus technical traders introduced in Brock and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343262

Interacting agents in finance

Hommes, Cars H. - 2006

Interacting agents in finance represent a behavioral, agent-based approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex adaptive systems consisting of many boundedly rational agents interacting through simple heterogeneous investment strategies, constantly adapting their behavior in response...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348701