We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...

A large set of 5350 trend following technica! trading rules is applied to LIFFEand CSCE cocoa futures prices, and tothe Pound-Dollar exchange rate, in the period 1983:1-1997:6. We find that 72% ofthe trading rules generatespositive profits, even when correcting for transaction and borrowing...