We develop Hawkes models in which events are triggered through self as well as cross-excitation. We examine whether incorporating cross-excitation improves the forecasts of extremes in asset returns compared to only self-excitation. The models are applied to US stocks, bonds and dollar exchange...

We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around...

Following the recent terrorist attacks in Paris, the European media emphatically pronounced that billions of euros were wiped from tourism related stocks. This comes at a troublesome time for the tourism industry, in the midst of a global financial crisis, and the unpredictable rise of radical...

The paper considers the problem of volatility co-movement, namely as to whether two financial returns have perfectly correlated common volatility process, in the framework of multivariate stochastic volatility models and proposes a test which checks the volatility co-movement. The proposed test...

Following the recent terrorist attacks in Paris, the European media emphatically pronounced that billions of Euros were wiped from tourism related stocks. The theoretical relationship of the industry with such unexpected non-macro incidents received moderate academic coverage. Nevertheless, the...

The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) (2013) recently proposed shifting the quantitative risk metrics system from Value-at-Risk (VaR) to Expected Shortfall (ES). The BCBS (2013) noted that - a number of weaknesses have been identified with using VaR for determining regulatory capital...