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Hanaki, Nobuyuki; Magnus, Jan R.; Yoo, Donghoon - 2021

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and try to understand why...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012795343

A statistical explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect

Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A. - 2021

An explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect is provided which does not require any psychological explanation, because it is derived as a statistical artefact. This is achieved by specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012665994

Grade expectations : rationality and overconfidence

Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A. - 2017

Overconfidence seems to be an essential aspect of human nature, and one way to study overconfidence is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688320

Earthquake risk embedded in property prices : evidence from five Japanese cities

Ikefuji, Masako; Laeven, Roger J. A.; Magnus, Jan R.; … - 2018

We analyze the impact of short-run and long-run earthquake risk on Japanese property prices. We exploit a rich panel … enables us to identify the total compensation for earthquake risk embedded in property prices and to decompose this into … pieces stemming from short-run and long-run risk, and to further decompose this into objective and distorted risk components. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011878803

The forecast combination puzzle : a simple theoretical explanation

Claeskens, Gerda; Magnus, Jan R.; Vasnev, Andrey; Wang, … - 2014

This papers offers a theoretical explanation for the stylized fact that forecast combinations with estimated optimal weights often perform poorly in applications. The properties of the forecast combination are typically derived under the assumption that the weights are fixed, while in practice...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010408465

Expected utility and catastrophic risk

Ikefuji, Masako; Laeven, Roger; Magnus, Jan R.; Muris, Chris - 2014

-free and are relevant to many fields encountering catastrophic risk analysis, such as, perhaps most noticeably, insurance and … risk management. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412466