Showing 1 - 10 of 702
We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556201
This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001792789
-driven dynamics. The new models are highly flexible, scalable to high dimensions, and ensure positivity of covariance and correlation … matrices. The model retains a closed-form likelihood expression, thus allowing for straightforward parameter estimation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979595
The dynamic factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model introduced by Chauvet (1998) has proven to be a powerful framework to measure the business cycle. We extend the DFMS model by allowing for time-varying transition probabilities, with the aim of accelerating the real-time dating of turning points...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285510
We propose a new approach to the modelling of the term structure of interest rates. We consider the general dynamic factor model and show how to impose smoothness restrictions on the factor loadings. We further present a statistical procedure based on Wald tests that can be used to find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378359
estimation of static factor models and factor augmented autoregressions using a set of 190 quarterly observations of 144 US …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532582
robust across countries and time periods. Typically, the correlation coefficients at long-run horizons are significantly … negative and the correlation coefficients at short-run horizons are substantially higher. Additionally, there is evidence of … positive correlation at short-run forecast horizons for some countries. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327530
interdependence structures across multiple sectors. The estimation procedure is based on a multistep least squares method which is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249846
This paper addresses the poor performance of the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm in the estimation of low … estimation accuracy. Modestly increasing the noise level also accelerates convergence. A nowcasting exercise of euro area GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249849