Showing 1 - 10 of 65
Accurate prediction of the frequency of extreme events is of primary importance in many financialapplications such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) analysis. We propose a semi-parametric method for VaRevaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010533206
This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379456
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009784942
In this paper we document that realized variation measures constructed from high-frequency returns reveal a large degree of volatility risk in stock and index returns, where we characterize volatility risk by the extent to which forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010366935
orhistorical and Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although these approaches to overall VaR estimation have receivedsubstantial … proposed estimation approach pairs intuitiveappeal with computational efficiency. We evaluate various alternative estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301159
The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289
Estimation of the volatility of time series has taken off since the introduction of the GARCH and stochastic volatility … unobserved stochastic volatility, and the varying approaches that have been taken for such estimation. In order to simplify the … comprehension of these estimation methods, the main methods for estimating stochastic volatility are discussed, with focus on their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386124
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000122460
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000122477
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003787153