This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: A basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on...

This paper investigates whether privatization in emerging economies has a significant indirect effect on local stock market development through the resolution of political risk. We argue that a sustained privatization program represents a major political test that gradually resolves uncertainty...

Recent empirical evidence suggests that value and momentum strategies generate significantexcess returns in emerging markets. We confirm these results and extend them in severaldirections. First, we examine a broader range of stock selection strategies, including strategiesbased on analysts'...

We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematicrisk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level ofintegration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on themarket...

Can a wealth shift to emerging countries explain instability in developed countries? Investors exposed to political risk seek safety in countries with better property right protection. This induces private intermediaries to offer safety via inexpensive demandable debt, and increase lending into...