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students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic … five hundred second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams … and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Students' expectations are not rational and most of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011688320
We develop a simple human capital model for optimum schooling length when earnings are stochastic, and highlight the pivotal role of risk attitudes and the schooling gradient of earnings risk. We use Spanish data to document the gradient and to estimate individual response to earnings risk in...
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there is a demand for redistribution, the general equilibrium effects on relative wages might make a subsidy to education an …
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We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465148
We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
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