Keijsers, Bart; Diris, Bart; Kole, Erik - 2015
Cyclicality in the losses of bank loans is important for bank risk management. Because loans have a different risk … default rate and loss given default of bank loans share a cyclical component, related to the business cycle. We infer this … downturns. Our model implies substantial time-variation in banks' capital reserves, and helps predicting the losses. …