We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...

The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week...

The heteroscedastic logit model is useful to describe choices of individuals when the randomness in the choice-making varies over time. For example, during surveys individuals may become fatigued and start responding more randomly to questions as the survey proceeds. Or when completing a ranking...

To gain insights in the current status of the economy, macroeconomic time series are often decomposed into trend, cycle and irregular components. This can be done by nonparametric band-pass filtering methods in the frequency domain or by model-based decompositions based on autoregressive moving...

We adopt an unobserved components time series model to extract financial cycles for the United States and the five largest euro area countries over the period 1970 to 2014. We find that credit, the credit-to-GDP ratio and house prices have medium-term cycles which share a few common statistical...

It is a common finding in empirical discrete choice studies that the estimated mean relative values of the coefficients (i.e. WTP's) from multinomial logit (MNL) estimations differ from those calculated using mixed logit estimations, where the mixed logit has the better statistical fit. However,...

This paper utilizes a very simple model to study the timing and determinants of speculationagainst a fixed exchange rate regime when investors are heterogeneous because of locationaldifferences. Location matters because resident players may incur smaller costs when takinga short-position, are...

We estimate the incremental financing decision for a sample of some 150Dutch companies for the years 1984 through 1997, thereby distinguishinginternal finance and three types of external finance: bank borrowing, bondissues and share issues. First, we estimate a multinomial logit model...

Recent models for credit risk management make use of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially mis-specified. In this paper, we focus on...