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We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
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created by Monte Carlo simulation to test, in a controlled environment, the effects of the different possible sources of bias … utilities is negative, then the bias in the MNL estimate is negative, whereas if the correlation is positive the bias is …
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largely due to a bias induced by the aggregation of skill types into broad categories. An assignment model is applied where … the bias. Estimation results for the United States show elasticities of complementarity to be underestimated by up to a …
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Most evidence of hyperbolic discounting is based on violations of either stationarity or time consistency as observed in choice experiments. These choice reversals may however also result from time-varying discount rates. Hyperbolic discounting is a plausible explanation for choice reversals...
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bias. We study this by using a data set that combines survey information of individual workers with administrative records … survey respondents and non-respondents. We develop a method to distinguish empirically between two explanations for a bias in … both explanations. We discuss implications for standard methods to deal with non-response bias. …
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effects of error propagation on the bias and mean squarederror of the meta-estimator, and the size and the power of …
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altruism sometimes provides a net incentive to report performance truthfully, rather than to bias evaluations upward. The …
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