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Consumption choices and earnings expectations : empirical evidence and structural estimation

Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne - 2023

In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures crucially depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings, wealth and time-invariant unobserved characteristics such as permanent income and over-confidence. To explain this evidence, we develop...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249642

Consumption choices and earnings expectations : empirical evidence and structural estimation

Stoltenberg, Christian; Uhlendorff, Arne - 2022

In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings and wealth. To explain this evidence, we develop and structurally estimate a standard-incomplete markets model in which rational households...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013332707

Idiosyncratic labour income risk and aggregate consumption : an unobserved component approach

Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2007

We investigate the importance of aggregate and consumer-specific or idiosyncratic labour income risk for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of labour income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372981

Advance information and consumption insurance : evidence from panel data

Pedroni, Marcelo; Singh, Swapnil; Stoltenberg, Christian - 2022 - Preliminary, April 15, 2022

We investigate whether US households possess advance information about their future income and what this means for consumption insurance. Based on insights from a theoretical model, we propose a new test to detect advance information, which requires only panel data on consumption and income....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186823

Cyclical consumption

Berger, Tino; Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2023

Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014380708

The anatomy of unemployment dynamics

Abbring, Jaap H.; Berg, Gerard J. van den; Ours, Jan C. van - 1994

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000151680

Periodic unobserved cycles in seasonal time series with an application to US unemployment

Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Hindrayanto, Irma - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003408447

The pace of structural change, cyclical shocks and unemployment dynamics : simulations using an empirical flow model

Butter, Frank A. G. den; Dijk, Mark van - 1997

increase in the pace of job creation and destruction may have substantial effects on employment and unemployment;the effects … may be out of its unemployment equilibrium for quite a long time after a shock occurs.The novelty of the model is that it … takes explicitly account of the propagationof shocks through the various duration classes of unemployment andallows for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010336861

Periodic unobserved cycles in seasonal time series with an application to US unemployment

Koopman, Siem Jan; Ooms, Marius; Hindrayanto, Irma - 2006

, the model is applied to postwar monthly US unemployment series and we discover a significantly periodic cycle. Furthermore …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350384

Idiosyncratic labour income risk and aggregate consumption : an unobserved component approach

Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003609101

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