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Measuring biases in expectation formation

Peters, Florian; Kucinskas, Simas - 2018

We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869992

Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments

Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625

Value orientations, expectations, and voluntary contributions in public goods

Offerman, Theo; Sonnemans, Joep; Schram, Arthur - 1995

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000902253

Behaviorally rational expectations and almost self-fulfilling equilibria

Hommes, Cars H. - 2013

Rational expectations assumes perfect, model consistency between beliefs and market realizations. Here we discuss behaviorally rational expectations, characterized by an observable, parsimonious and intuitive form of consistency between beliefs and realizations. We discuss three case-studies....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227365

Expectations in experiments

Wagener, Florian Oskar Ottokar - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191289

Individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior

Assenza, Tiziana; Heemeijer, Peter; Hommes, Cars H.; … - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431

The effect of noise in a performance measure on work motivation : a real effort laboratory experiment

Sloof, Randolph; Praag, Mirjam van - 2008

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003762588

Deception and self-deception

Schwardman, Peter; Weele, Joël J. van der - 2016

We experimentally investigate the determinants of overconfidence and test the hypothesis, advanced by Robert Trivers, that overconfidence serves to more effectively persuade or deceive others. After performing a cognitively challenging task, half of our subjects are informed about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441641

The effect of noise in a performance measure on work motivation

Sloof, Randolph; Praag, Mirjam van - 2008

This paper reports the results of an individual real effort laboratory experiment where subjects are paid for measured … than in the stable environment. This finding is in line with standard agency theory and contrasts a distinct element of … expectancy theory; noisier performance measures do not lower work motivation. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376648

Learning in cobweb experiments

Hommes, Cars H.; Sonnemans, Joep; Tuinstra, Jan; … - 2003

Different theories of expectation formation and learning usually yield different outcomes for realized market prices in dynamic models. The purpose of this paper is to investigate expectation formation and learning in a controlled experimental environment. Subjects are asked to predict the next...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333266