This paper investigates why the forward premium predicts the future depreciation with the "wrong" sign and why the unobserved deviation from rational uncovered interest parity is negatively correlated with and is more volatile than the rationally expected depreciation. We examine the ability of...

Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call "pressure." Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the...

Exchange market pressure (EMP) measures the pressure on a currencyto depreciate. It adds to the actual depreciation a weightedcombination of policy instruments used to ward off depreciation,such as interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, where theweights are their effectiveness. The...

Exchange market pressure (EMP) measures the pressure on a currency to depreciate. It adds to the actual depreciation a weighted combination of policy instruments used to ward off depreciation, such as interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, where the weights are their effectiveness....

If there is exchange market pressure (EMP), monetary authorities can use the interest rate and official interventions to offset this depreciation tendency, or they can let the exchange rate change. We introduce a new approach to derive how these three variables should be combined to measure EMP....

Speeding up the exchange does not necessarily improve liquidity. The price quotes of high-frequency market makers are more likely to meet speculative high-frequency "bandits", thus less likely to meet liquidity traders. The bid-ask spread is raised in response. The recursive dynamic model...