This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series … is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where a random walk forecast acts as benchmark. It is found that for … approaches do not outperform the random walk, or a somewhat more sophisticated time series model, on a 3 month forecast horizon …

, effectively defeating the tyranny of discounting. A back-of-the-envelope calibration suggests that this last result is realistic …

Limited liability may result in inefficient accident prevention, because a relevant portion of the expected harm is … externalized on victims. This paper shows that under some restrictive conditions further limiting liability by means of a liability …

preference reversals arecommonly interpreted as contradicting constant discounting. This interpretation is correctonly if … baseline consumption to which the outcomes are added, remains constant over time.The difficulty with measuring discounting when … discounted. In this paper we propose a way to disentangle thetwo effects, which allows us to draw conclusions about discounting …

Most evidence of hyperbolic discounting is based on violations of either stationarity or time consistency as observed … discounting is a plausible explanation for choice reversals only if violations of stationarity and time consistency overlap. Our … conclude that when incomes fluctuate, one can only identify hyperbolic discounting by eliciting violations of both stationarity …

statistic of Robin and Smith [Econometric Theory (2000), 16, 151–175] usage of numerical optimization for the objective function … singular values in Ratsimalahelo [2002, Rank test based on matrix perturbation theory. Unpublished working paper, U …

). Finally, we offer considerations on the optimal design of liability rules. …