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This paper investigates the optimal design of incentives when agents distort probabilities. We show that the type of probability distortion displayed by the agent and its degree determine whether an incentivecompatible contract can be implemented, the strength of the incentives included in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013460007
Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465148
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869992
We propose a novel utility representation for preferences over risky timed outcomes. The weighted temporal utility … model generalizes many well known utility functions for intertemporal decision making under risk. A decision maker with a … weighted temporal utility function can have time consistent yet non-stationary preferences or stationary yet time inconsistent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224796
An expected utility based cost-benefit analysis is in general fragile to its distributional assumptions. We derive … necessary and sufficient conditions on the utility function of the expected utility model to avoid this. The conditions ensure … that expected (marginal) utility remains finite also under heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. Our results are context …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412466
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