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We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models for the inclusion of macro-economic factors. We benefit from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature for extracting the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and for estimating the parameters in the model....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386428
We discuss the timing and strength of the Fed's reaction to the recent inflation surge within an estimated … macroeconomic model where long-run inflation expectations are heterogeneous and can lose their anchoring to the target. The … resulting inflation scare worsens the real cost of disinflation. We derive a closed-form solution that retains the entire time …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015191492
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
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We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative … interest rate in response to inflation. In particular, if the monetary authority only responds weakly to inflation, a … cumulative process with rising inflation is likely. On the other hand, a Taylor interest rate rule that sets the interest rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378358
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rate sequences that satisfy interest rate target rules. An interest rate target with a positive inflation feedback in … general corresponds to money growth rates rising with inflation. When prices are not completely flexible, this implies that a … target can be implemented by a non-destabilizing money supply, even if the inflation feedback exceeds one, which is often …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343954
In this paper I examine various extensions of the Nelson and Siegel (1987) model with the purpose of fitting and forecasting the term structure of interest rates. As expected, I find that using more flexible models leads to a better in-sample fit of the term structure. However, I show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372504