If there is exchange market pressure (EMP), monetary authorities can use the interest rate and official interventions to offset this depreciation tendency, or they can let the exchange rate change. We introduce a new approach to derive how these three variables should be combined to measure EMP....

Federal Reserve nonborrowed reserve supply systematically responded to changes in inflation and in the output gap over the period 1969-2000. While the feedback from output gap is always negative, the response of money supply to changes in inflation varies considerably across time. Nonborrowed...

We propose a Bayesian infinite hidden Markov model to estimate time- varying parameters in a vector autoregressive model. The Markov structure allows for heterogeneity over time while accounting for state-persistence. By modelling the transition distribution as a Dirichlet process mixture model,...

This paper assesses the role of sovereign risk in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Turkey. We estimate two versions of a simple New Keynesian small open economy model on quarterly data for the period 1994Q3-2008Q2: A basic version and a version augmented by a default premium on...

We propose a new Bayesian heteroskedastic Markov-switching structural vector autoregression with data-driven time-varying identification. The model selects alternative exclusion restrictions over time and, as a condition for the search, allows to verify identification through heteroskedasticity...

We study the impact of increasingly negative central bank policy rates on banks' propensity to become undercapitalized in a financial crisis (`SRisk'). We find that the risk impact of negative rates depends on banks' business models: Large banks with diversified income streams are perceived as...

There is a widely held view that existing differences in the capital and moneymarket structures across EMU countries are an important matter of concern forthe ECB, because they might hinder the uniform transmission of monetary policyactions. We argue that many aspects of financial structure are...

This paper employs Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output in Indonesia. Having incorporated a possible structural break following the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian Crisis, the impulse response functions derived from the estimated...