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incomplete markets model and find that advance information reduces households' income forecast errors by 15%. Our estimation …
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We investigate the importance of aggregate and consumer-specific or idiosyncratic labour income risk for aggregate … consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of labour income risk on consumption changes is … decomposed into an aggregate and into an idiosyncratic part. Empirically, aggregate risk is modelled through a GARCH process on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372981
Recessions and expansions are often caused or reinforced by developments in private consumption - the largest component of aggregate demand - which, as a result, varies over the business cycle. As such, an accurate measurement of the cyclical component of consumption and an understanding of its...
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calculated from the estimation of a log-linear version of the household intertemporal budget constraint as a cointegrating …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011844588
In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures crucially depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings, wealth and time-invariant unobserved characteristics such as permanent income and over-confidence. To explain this evidence, we develop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249642