Showing 1 - 10 of 2,413
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191433
of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative … interest rate in response to inflation. In particular, if the monetary authority only responds weakly to inflation, a … cumulative process with rising inflation is likely. On the other hand, a Taylor interest rate rule that sets the interest rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011378358
inflation volatility. Contrary to comparable models based on full rationality, the behavioral model predicts that inflation … volatility can be lowered if the central bank reacts to the output gap in addition to inflation. We test the opposing theoretical … reacting to the output gap in addition to inflation can indeed lower inflation volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298879
This experiment compares the price dynamics and bubble formation in an asset market with a price adjustment rule in three treatments where subjects (1) submit a price forecast only, (2) choose quantity to buy/sell and (3) perform both tasks. We find deviation of the market price from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333057
Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465148
We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
detect biases in empirically relevant settings. We illustrate the methodology using data on inflation forecasts. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011869992
experiment - where expectations are elicited from human subjects - to collect data on expectations, inflation and output dynamics … under a traditional inflation targeting (IT) framework and a PLT regime with both deflationary and cost-push shocks. We then … implications of PLT, which results in excess macroeconomic volatility. However, once augmented with an inflation guidance from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014280056
We discuss recent work on bounded rationality and learning in relation to Soros' principle of reflexivity and stress the empirical importance of non-rational, almost self-fulfilling equilibria in positive feedback systems. As an empirical example, we discuss a behavioral asset pricing model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227330
We introduce a simple equilibrium model of a market for loans, where house- holds lend to firms based on heterogeneous expectations about their loan default probability. Agents select among heterogeneous expectation rules, based upon their relative performance. A small fraction of pessimistic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010227354