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We propose a new class of observation-driven time-varying parameter models for dynamic volatilities and correlations to handle time series from heavy-tailed distributions. The model adopts generalized autoregressive score dynamics to obtain a time-varying covariance matrix of the multivariate...
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. The methodology is hybrid because it combines a formaltesting procedure with volatility curve pattern recognition based …
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The sum of squared intraday returns provides an unbiased and almost error-free measure of ex-post volatility. In this … paper we develop a nonlinear Autoregressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model for realized volatility …, which accommodates level shifts, day-of-the-week effects, leverage effects and volatility level effects. Applying the model …
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forecasting, the authors propose a new factor multivariate stochastic volatility (fMSV) model for realized covariance measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259630
We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520881
The paper develops a novel realized matrix-exponential stochastic volatility model of multivariate returns and realized …. The volatility and co-volatility spillovers are examined via the news impact curves and the impulse response functions … from returns to volatility and co-volatility. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011536626
dynamic factor and a vector autoregressive model and includes stochastic volatility, denoted by FAVAR-SV. Next, a Bayesian … risk features like volatility and largest loss, which indicates that complete densities provide useful information for risk. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011563065