Root cancellation in Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models leads tolocal non-identification of parameters. When we use diffuse or normal priorson the parameters of the ARMA model, posteriors in Bayesian analyzes show ana posteriori favor for this local non-identification. We show that the...

The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of-fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislationon reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structuraltime series models are...

This paper considers a simple Continuous Beliefs System (CBS) toinvestigate the effects on price dynamics of several behavioralassumptions: (i) herd behaviour; (ii) a-synchronous updating ofbeliefs; and (iii) heterogeneity in time horizons (memory) amongagents. The recently introduced concept of...

Although the main interest in the modelling of electricity prices is often on volatility aspects, we argue that stochastic heteroskedastic behaviour in prices can only be modelled correctly when the conditional mean of the time series is properly modelled. In this paper we consider different...

Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method...

The linear Gaussian state space model for which the common variance istreated as a stochastic time-varying variable is considered for themodelling of economic time series. The focus of this paper is on thesimultaneous estimation of parameters related to the stochasticprocesses of the mean part...