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, with technical analysts conditioning their forecastingrule upon deviations from a benchmark fundamental. Volatility …
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measured by the variance is significantly larger than the amplitude under RE, implying persistent excess volatility. However …
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JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have … volatility and persistence amplification. …
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The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous...
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forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants …) and large markets (about 100 participants). In large markets the influence of an individual forecast on the realized price …
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