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Gresnigt, Francine; Kole, Erik; Franses, Philip Hans - 2015

We propose various specification tests for Hawkes models based on the Lagrange Multiplier (LM) principle. Hawkes models can be used to model the occurrence of extreme events in financial markets. Our specific testing focus is on extending a univariate model to a multivariate model, that is, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298883

Backtesting value-at-risk using forecasts for multiple horizons, a comment on the forecast rationality tests of A. J. Patton A. Timmermann

Hoogerheide, Lennart F.; Ravazzolo, Francesco; Dijk, … - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720750

Partial likelihood-based scoring rules for evaluating density forecasts in tails

Diks, Cees G. H.; Panchenko, Valentyn; Dijk, Dick van - 2008

We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374395

The empirical economic growth literature

Florax, Raymond J. G. M.; Groot, Henri L. F. de; … - 2002

The empirical economic growth literature is criticized for its lack ofrobustness. For different definitions of robustness, conclusions vary from 'almost everycorrelation is fragile' to 'a substantial number of explanatory variables are robust.' Were-analyze the empirical results of the economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011326970

Computationally attractive stability tests for the efficient method of moments

Sluis, Pieter J. van der - 1997

Estimation using simulation techniques may be very time consuming. Specification tests for structuralstability often require more than one of such computationally demanding estimators. Typically one for thesample, one for the post-sample and one for the combination of sample and post-sample is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010339446

Likelihood-based cointegration analysis in panels of vector error correction models

Groen, Jan J. J.; Kleibergen, Frank - 1999 - This version: July 28, 1999

We propose in this paper a likelihood-based framework forcointegration analysis in panels of a fixed number of vector errorcorrection models. Maximum likelihood estimators of thecointegrating vectors are constructed using iterated GeneralizedMethod of Moments estimators. Using these estimators...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302148

Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition

Kleibergen, Frank; Paap, Richard - 2003

statistic of Robin and Smith [Econometric Theory (2000), 16, 151–175] usage of numerical optimization for the objective function … singular values in Ratsimalahelo [2002, Rank test based on matrix perturbation theory. Unpublished working paper, U ….F.R. Science Economique, University de Franche-Comté]. In the non-stationary cointegration case, the limiting distribution of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011332818

Improved likelihood ratio tests for cointegration rank in the VAR model

Boswijk, Herman Peter; Jansson, Michael; Nielsen, … - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191001

Detecting serial dependence in tail events

Diks, Cees G. H. - 2002

A test for serial independence is proposed which is related to the BDS test but focuses on tail event probabilities rather than probabilities near the center of the distribution. The motivation behind this approach is to obtain a test more suitable for detecting structure in the tails, such as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327543

Out-of-sample comparison of copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts

Diks, Cees G. H.; Panchenko, Valentyn; Dijk, Dick van - 2008

We introduce a statistical test for comparing the predictive accuracy of competing copula specifications in multivariate density forecasts, based on the Kullback-Leibler Information Criterion (KLIC). The test is valid under general conditions: in particular it allows for parameter estimation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377261

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