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This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
from individual expectations. Subjects have no information about underlying market equilibrium equations, but can learn by … stable treatment, rational expectations (RE) yield a good description of observed aggregate price fluctuations: prices remain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333266
We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental en-vironment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricingmodel. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equa-tions, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333274
whether therelated expectations and realizations match each other. We use theDutch Social Economic Panel survey data, where … expectations aboutthe next year's financial situation are reported. We show that realizedchanges exceed expectations, and that this … distribution of expectations andrealizations, suggest that individuals around retirement are overly pes-simistic and attach more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335229
Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health …, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly … veracity of expectations are due to the less educated and cognitively able responding less to changes in objective mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532122
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012665880
Evolutionary and environmental economics have a potentially close relationship. This paper reviews past and identifies potential applications of evolutionary concepts and methods to environmental economics. This covers a number of themes: resource use and ecosystem management; growth and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011350354
We address the notion of dynamic, endogenous diversity and its role in theories of investment and technological innovation. We develop a formal model of an innovation arising from the combination of two existing modules with the objective to optimize the net benefits of diversity. The model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377094
Traditional finance is built on the rationality paradigm. This chapter discusses simple models from an alternative … the past. Calibration of simple complexity models with heterogeneous expectations to real financial market data and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011376458