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We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374395
Tests for structural stability with unknown breakpoint are derived for and applied tothe efficient method of moments. Three types of tests are discerned: Wald type tests,Predictive tests and Hansen type tests. The Hansen type test for structural stabilitywith unknown breakpoint is a novelty for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011284082
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009765832
-off encountered by other sampling methods. An elaborate simulation study and an empirical application for U.S. stock returns reveal … methods. Our methodology explores the idea that only a small part of the likelihood evaluation problem requires simulation. We … refer to our new method as numerically accelerated importance sampling. The method is computationally and numerically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386179
simulation evidence for stochastic volatility and stochastic intensity models. For our empirical study, we analyse the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399681
used in importance sampling for model estimation, model selection and model combination. The procedure is fully automatic …This paper proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of GARCH …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380465
Adaptive Polar Sampling (APS) is proposed as a Markov chain Monte Carlomethod for Bayesian analysis of models with ill …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011302625
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010190991
-1414.Important choices for efficient and accurate evaluation of marginal likelihoods by means of Monte Carlo simulation methods are … importance sampling or the independence chain Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for posterior analysis. A comparative analysis is … presented of possible advantages and limitations of different simulation techniques; of possible choices of candidate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377602
Strategic choices for efficient and accurate evaluation of marginal likelihoods by means of Monte Carlo simulation … possible advantages and limitations of different simulation techniques; of possible choices of candidate distributions and … flexible estimation strategy is demonstrated where the complete posterior distribution is explored. Given an appropriately yet …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380802