Showing 1 - 10 of 131
Prospective economic developments depend on the behavior of consumer spending. A key question is whether private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or whether the COVID-19 crisis has a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012665880
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011590425
from individual expectations. Subjects have no information about underlying market equilibrium equations, but can learn by … stable treatment, rational expectations (RE) yield a good description of observed aggregate price fluctuations: prices remain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333266
We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental en-vironment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricingmodel. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equa-tions, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011333274
whether therelated expectations and realizations match each other. We use theDutch Social Economic Panel survey data, where … expectations aboutthe next year's financial situation are reported. We show that realizedchanges exceed expectations, and that this … distribution of expectations andrealizations, suggest that individuals around retirement are overly pes-simistic and attach more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011335229
Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health …, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly … veracity of expectations are due to the less educated and cognitively able responding less to changes in objective mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010532122
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191431
The use of various moving average (MA) rules remains popular with financial market practitioners. These rules have recently become the focus of a number empirical studies, but there have been very few studies of financial market models where some agents employ technical trading rules of the type...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343956
In this paper, we document that households' consumption expenditures crucially depend on their expected earnings - even after controlling for realized earnings, wealth and time-invariant unobserved characteristics such as permanent income and over-confidence. To explain this evidence, we develop...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014249642
government share is not too large and public finance does not solely rely on distortionary taxation. When government expenditures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011343264