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Tracking growth and the business cycle : a stochastic common cycle model for the euro area
Azevedo, João Valle e; Koopman, Siem Jan; Rua, António - 2003
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001792789
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Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices
Hommes, Cars H.; Veld, Daan in't - 2015 - This draft: July 2015
We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301214
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Recessions after systemic banking crises : does it matter how governments intervene?
Wijnbergen, Sweder van; Homar, Timotej - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191418
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Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments
Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019
". We observe both stable markets and large bubbles for both small and large markets. The data analysis shows no differences … successfully drives prices back towards the fundamental, but we observe very large bubbles in which the news apparently has no …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625
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Herding behaviour, bubbles and log periodic power laws in illiquid stock markets : a case study on the bucharest stock exchange
Pele, Daniel Traian; Mazurencu Marinescu, Miruna; … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191335
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Credit cycles and macro fundamentals
Koopman, Siem Jan; Kräussl, Roman; Lucas, André; … - 2006
We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980-2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348707
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Fiscal deficits, financial fragility, and the effectiveness of government policies
Kirchner, Markus; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191012
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Model-based business cycle and financial cycle decomposition for Europe and the U.S.
Koopman, Siem Jan; Lit, Rutger; Lucas, André - 2016
We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520505
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Modeling common bubbles : a mixed causal non-causal dynamic factor model
Mingoli, Gabriele - 2024
common bubbles, within large-dimensional, potentially non-stationary time series. The model leverages a lower-dimensional set … allows to predict systemic risk and test for the emergence of common bubbles. The dynamics of the explosive factors are … new approach offers a powerful tool for detecting common bubbles and predicting their evolution, providing relevant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015133628
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Accelerating peak dating in a dynamic factor Markov-Switching Model
Os, Bram van; Dijk, Dick van - 2020 - Revision: November 29, 2020
The dynamic factor Markov-switching (DFMS) model introduced by Chauvet (1998) has proven to be a powerful framework to measure the business cycle. We extend the DFMS model by allowing for time-varying transition probabilities, with the aim of accelerating the real-time dating of turning points...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012285510