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Tracking growth and the business cycle : a stochastic common cycle model for the euro area

Azevedo, João Valle e; Koopman, Siem Jan; Rua, António - 2003

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001792789

Booms, busts and behavioural heterogeneity in stock prices

Hommes, Cars H.; Veld, Daan in't - 2015 - This draft: July 2015

We empirically evaluate a behavioural model with boundedly rational traders who disagree about the persistence of deviations from the fundamental stock price. Fundamentalist traders believe in mean-reversion, while chartists extrapolate trends. Agents gradually switch between the two rules,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011301214

Secular stagnation, rational bubbles, and fiscal policy

Teulings, Coen N. - 2016

It is well known that rational bubbles can be sustained in balanced growth path of a deterministic economy when the … return to capital r is equal to the growth rate g. When there is a lack of stores of value, bubbles can implement an … capital. Then, bubbles further efficiency, though they cannot implement first best. While bubbles can only be sustained when r …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011540632

Bubbles, crashes and information contagion in large-group asset market experiments

Hommes, Cars H.; Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Sonnemans, Joep - 2019

". We observe both stable markets and large bubbles for both small and large markets. The data analysis shows no differences … successfully drives prices back towards the fundamental, but we observe very large bubbles in which the news apparently has no …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011979625

Credit cycles and macro fundamentals

Koopman, Siem Jan; Kräussl, Roman; Lucas, André; … - 2006

We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980-2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348707

The macroeconomics of the credit crisis : in search of externalities for macro-prudential supervision

Butter, Frank A. G. den - 2010

In the analysis of the credit crisis of 2007-2010 a clear distinction should be made between (i) the initial shock; (ii) the propagation and amplification of the initial shock to the systemic crisis of the financial markets; and (iii) the transmission of the credit crisis to the real economic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380729

Fiscal deficits, financial fragility, and the effectiveness of government policies

Kirchner, Markus; Wijnbergen, Sweder van - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010191012

Model-based business cycle and financial cycle decomposition for Europe and the U.S.

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lit, Rutger; Lucas, André - 2016

We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520505

Tracking growth and the business cycle : a stochastic common cycle model for the Euro area

Azevedo, João Valle e; Koopman, Siem Jan; Rua, António - 2003

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334364

Is there really a global business cycle? : a dynamic factor model with stochastic factor selection

Berger, Tino; Pozzi, Lorenzo - 2016

We investigate the presence of international business cycles in macroeconomic aggregates (output, consumption, investment) using a panel of 60 countries over the period 1961 - 2014. The paper presents a Bayesian stochastic factor selection approach for dynamic factor models with predetermined...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011556201

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