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In this paper we test for (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity [(G)ARCH] in daily data on 22 exchange rates and 13 stock market indices using the standard Lagrange Multiplier [LM] test for GARCH and a LM test that is resistant to patches of additive outliers. The data span...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011284080
We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011374395
This paper considers spot variance path estimation from datasets of intraday high frequency asset prices in the presence of diurnal variance patterns, jumps, leverage effects and microstructure noise. We rely on parametric and nonparametric methods. The estimated spot variance path can be used...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379469
markets. Simulations show that the test has good size and power, in particular for sample sizes that are typically encountered …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011298883
,hereby investigating the robustness of cointegration methods. Finally, weillustrate how to obtain local power functions of cointegration …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300555
It is generally believed that for the power of unit root tests, only the time span and not the observation frequency … methods will yield power gains in the presence of fat tails and persistent volatility clustering, and the strength of these … features (and hence the power gains) increases with the observation frequency. This is illustrated using both Monte Carlo …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011342578
power problems, whereas the remaining two areadequate and in fact equivalent. The equivalence between the two valid …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011325661
parameter dynamics. The new test has higher and more stable power against alternatives with frequent regime switches or with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010229896
We investigate the information theoretic optimality properties of the score function of the predictive likelihood as a device to update parameters in observation driven time-varying parameter models. The results provide a new theoretical justification for the class of generalized autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010340740
The strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator in observation-driven models usually requires the study of the model both as a filter for the time-varying parameter and as a data generating process (DGP) for observed data. The probabilistic properties of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010364739