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Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009724340
An analysis of about 300000 earnings forecasts, created by 18000 individual forecasters for earnings of over 300 S&P listed firms, shows that these forecasts are predictable to a large extent using a statistical model that includes publicly available information. When we focus on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010490078
We find that the outperformance for Fama-French factors compared to macroeconomic factors in terms of fitting the cross-section of expected returns disappears when accounting for horizon effects. In addition, we obtain novel empirical relations between macroeconomic factors and Fama-French...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012591502
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000968763
expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility … during financial crises and subsequent recovery. Thereafter, we develop properties to explain excess volatility, short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011441491
vary according to whether they are in low or high volatility regimes. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011479769
We investigate high-frequency volatility models for analyzing intra-day tick by tick stock price changes using Bayesian … estimation procedures. Our key interest is the extraction of intra-day volatility patterns from high-frequency integer price … distributions. We allow for stochastic volatility by modeling the variance as a stochastic function of time, with intra-day periodic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011456723
In this paper we present an exact maximum likelihood treatment forthe estimation of a Stochastic Volatility in Mean …(SVM) model based on Monte Carlo simulation methods. The SVM modelincorporates the unobserved volatility as anexplanatory variable … Stochastic Volatility (SV)model. However, efficient Monte Carlo simulationmethods for SV models have been developed to overcome …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303314
, including market-based estimation of stochastic volatility models, the fine structure of equity-index option dynamics, leverage … and feedback effects in multifactor Wishart stochastic volatility for option pricing, option pricing with non …-Gaussian scaling and infinite-state switching volatility, stock return and cash flow predictability: the role of volatility risk, the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010465152
We introduce a dynamic Skellam model that measures stochastic volatility from high-frequency tick-by-tick discrete … series per day varies from 1000 to 10,000. Complexities in the intraday dynamics of volatility and in the frequency of trades … intraday volatility shows that the dynamic modified Skellam model provides accurate forecasts compared to alternative modeling …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011295740